Which factors discourage people to vote? Turnout in Argentine Provinces

Abstract

There is a vast literature of turnout for different developed countries that show a declining trend in turnout, and Argentina has not been the exception). The abundant literature on turnout that focused mainly on developed countries have explained this phenomenon with an ample set of socioeconomic and political variables that varies little among countries. We study the case of 7 gubernatorial elections for 23 provinces from 1983 to 2007. Our main innovation is to model the determinants of turnout in Argentina, which is a developing country. Unemployment rate, the growth of crime rate, GSP per capita, illiteracy rate and several political variables, all powerfully shape turnout in Argentinian provinces. This paper contributes to the knowledge using a dynamic panel model displaying the effect of three sets of variables: social, economic and political. There is evidence consistent with a withdrawal effect between unemployment and turnout, and a clearly negative relation between illiteracy and turnout.